NWS Forecast Discussion
188 FXUS63 KMPX 030533 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1133 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warm back to near-normal. - An Arctic front Wednesday brings another shot of light snow, along with gusty winds and well-below zero wind chills - Temperatures warm again to end the week, with above-normal values expected this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 Light snow from this morning has exited the area, but another round of flurries has accompanied a region of stratus advecting southwards into central Minnesota & Wisconsin. Not expecting anything more than a light dusting from the flurries this afternoon, but this could be just enough to lead to some slick spots on untreated surfaces in time for the evening commute. Southerly flow begins to develop tonight as the broad Canadian high pressure that has led to days of frigid weather begins to slide south of the region. This will allow for temperatures to rebound into the mid to upper 20s by tomorrow afternoon, potentially into the 30s across western Minnesota if skies remain clear. The southerly flow will also keep temperatures relatively warm Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with lows remaining in the low to upper 20s. However, temperatures soon come plummeting back down again as another Arctic front invades the region sometime Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon. A quick shot of light snow is expected along this frontal passage, but accumulations are expected to remain below half an inch. This could cause some issues for the morning commute of the front comes through several hours earlier than currently forecast, or potentially the evening commute if it is a few hours slower. Temperatures will quickly fall through the teens & eventually into the single digits by Wednesday night, with lows Thursday morning hovering around zero across western Minnesota. The strong cold advection will also result in gusty northwest winds after the frontal passage Wednesday afternoon & evening. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected, but some high-resolution guidance highlights the potential for gusts of 40-50 mph deepening on the depth of mixing behind the front. As you may imagine, the plummeting temepratures and brisk winds will result in biting wind chill values, as low as -10 to -20 degrees by Thursday morning. The northwest winds begin to diminish on Thursday as another strong Canadian high pressure moves into the region, but continued cold advection will keep daytime temperatures in the single digits to teens. Temperatures then begin another warming trend from Friday through the weekend as the high pressure slides south of the region and a few days of interrupted southerly flow develops in its wake. Temperatures should be close to normal on Friday, and likely above-normal over the weekend with highs near 40 possible on Sunday. A chance for light precipitation also returns over the weekend, with chances looking better Sunday into Monday && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR from west to east overnight. Winds will remain light overnight with variable NW to SW winds. These winds will pick up from the south on Tuesday with gusts up around 20 knots. Winds will fall some Tuesday night before increasing significantly on Wednesday. There have been some occasional period of light snow from the stratus, but they should be brief in duration as we head later into the night. KMSP...MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR later in the morning. Winds will be variable as well from a NW to SW direction overnight before being more consistent from a SW direction later this morning. Winds should fully shift to the south by the afternoon and will be gusty. Localized snow showers will be a possible while the MVFR stratus remains overhead. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...MVFR. Scattered flurries. Wind NW 15-25G30-35 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...NDC
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion