NWS Forecast Discussion
362 FXUS63 KMPX 050810 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - More storm chances on today with the best chances across central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. - Saturday trends back to dry before wet weather returns late Sunday through Monday. - Much hotter temperatures by the middle of next week with 90s expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 A few areas of rain stretch from central to southwestern MN early this morning with the strongest activity from near STC to JMR. Here, scattered thunderstorms have been pulsing up and down over the last couple of hours. Some small hail may be possible within the strongest cells but nearly non-existent wind shear will mean organized strong storms are not expected. The activity currently over our CWA will slowly move east but die off as we head towards sunrise. But, the showers and storms over SD will also push east and enter western MN after sunrise this morning. This activity will weaken with time but a few scattered showers and storms are expected over western into central MN this morning. Highs will again warm into the low to mid 80s this afternoon while another round of thunderstorms is expected to develop as a shortwave approaches. As of now, central MN into west-central WI looks like the most likely area of showers and storms into this evening. 1000-2500 J/kg of CAPE and 30-35 knots of bulk shear could mean for a couple of supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Most of the wind shear is above 850 hPa so the chance for tornadoes is very small. Cellular storm mode will likely be short-lived as the linear shear profile favors splitting cells, which CAMs have growing into small line segments. The activity will travel east and exit our area late this evening. Amplified, upper-level ridging will build over the Upper Midwest this weekend, leading to dry conditions Saturday into Sunday afternoon. Highs will be slightly warmer in the mid 80s to lower 90s with the lower 90s more widespread across western MN Sunday. Humidity will also increase as strong southerly low-level flow advects greater moisture into the region. Thus, Sunday afternoon/evening should feel quite humid. Forecast models show another shortwave (originating from the Baja California peninsula) arriving into the Upper Midwest Sunday night. Guidance is in good agreement of showers and thunderstorms pushing north into southern MN Sunday night and then spreading across much of the CWA into Monday afternoon. Severe weather doesn`t seem likely owing to the modest, skinny CAPE profiles and lack of wind shear. But, showers and storms should be efficient rainfall producers as PWATs will range from 1.5-2" while moist adiabatic thermal profiles are deeply saturated. The main caveat limiting the chances for heavy rainfall will be the lack of synoptic lift, owing to the weakening of the shortwave. Still, at least 0.5" of rainfall is possible Sunday night through Monday. Ensembles and deterministic guidance both show the upper-level pattern undergoing more amplification towards mid-next week. Broad troughing will move over the western CONUS while strong ridging moves over the eastern CONUS/southeast Canada. This will leave the Northern Plains in southwesterly upper-level flow with southerly low- level flow underneath. Our first summer heatwave looks possible mid- next week with the NBM already showing widespread highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday. The combination of temperatures and dewpoints would push heat indices into the 100s during the afternoon hours each day. The forecast may seem alarmist or "jumping the gun" but the upper-level pattern does look to support strong heat. With the heat and moisture, instability will also likely be present and any disturbances in the flow could take advantage to produce showers and thunderstorms. However, forecast models don`t show much for definitive lift until the upper-level trough over the western CONUS ejects east later next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Confidence remains low with regard to isolated showers/storms Friday afternoon, so I have kept most sites VFR and dry. The scattered nature of convection and showers has made it more difficult than a blue sky forecast. Typical struggles are present in hi-res guidance and ongoing convection upstream over SoDak tonight. The expectation is that it`ll continue to push east and dissipate before reaching western MN sites mid-morning. There should be a remnant MCV that may lead to additional isolated TS/SHRA mid-late morning into early afternoon hours. Additional activity would be limited in this scenario. Plan is to until 12Z to add precip and TS mention where confident and be quick to AMD at our western sites through sunrise today. Winds will continue to be S/SW at the start, becoming light and VRB during the overnight and into the morning hours. Winds turn more west-southwesterly Friday afternoon/evening before turning light and variable again Friday night. KMSP... An unsettled stretch is likely through Friday evening. I have opted to keep the terminal dry/VFR throughout the next 30 hours. The driving factor is the combination of the scattered nature of thunderstorms/showers and low confidence on what happens with respect to additional scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening. For now, there is some convection and shower activity upstream over SoDak that will progress eastward through early Friday morning. Guidance supports that it should weaken and dissipate before MSP. The remnant MCV will likely induce additional showers and thunderstorms mid to late morning across MN. I have less confidence on if that activity impacts MSP at this time. Plan is to AMD and insert the potential for -SHRA or -TSRA if necessary. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind N at 5-10 kts, becoming E. SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR late. Wind SE at 10-15 kts MON...SHRA/TSRA likely. MVFR possible. Wind SE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...BPH
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion