NWS Forecast Discussion
070 FXUS63 KMPX 312324 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain and drizzle will linger through tonight. - Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid 50s to near 60 next week. The pattern supports mostly dry weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 An upper level low is located just west of the Twin Cities metro this afternoon and continues to head slowly southeast. Light rain and drizzle is most widespread near the center of the upper low, with patchier drizzle within the cyclonic flow away from the center. The low will linger for the next several hours before heading into northeast Iowa later this evening. The areas of light rain and drizzle will persist through at least that time before becoming patchier as the night wears on. Cyclonic flow will continue through Saturday morning and it`s possible some drizzle or sprinkles could still linger, especially across southern MN and western WI early. Clouds should gradually break up through the day as the trough exits and ridging returns. As for flurry potential through tonight, it`s looking rather unlikely with surface wetbulb temperatures steady in the upper 30s well into this evening. The one exception may be in the higher elevations of the Buffalo Ridge where wetbulb zero heights AGL are lower. Even still, a few snowflakes won`t result in any impacts. The pattern will remain active and progressive to the north for next week, but little sensible weather will result here. A trough will swing across the Upper Midwest Sunday/Sunday night. The bulk of any moisture and energy will be well northeast. Precip chances are confined to northern and far eastern MN and WI. Then, broad mid level ridging will encompass much of the CONUS through next week. Aside from an occasional weak cold front from shortwaves across southern Canada and their resulting wind shifts, there`s little to talk about for a while. Temperatures will be above normal thanks to the broad ridging and we may sneak in another 60 degree temp heading into the first week of November. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 601 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025 With a surface low currently residing over southeast MN, light rain showers will continue into tonight for southern MN and WI. The low will move southeast, dragging a majority of the showers with it by Saturday morning. Mist/drizzle will likely replace the rain but visibilities should remain above 6sm overnight. Breaks in the clouds have allowed for some terminals to currently be at VFR, but cigs will fall to MVFR during this evening. Most terminals will remain MVFR with the overcast stratus into Saturday afternoon, though MKT and MSP have a good chance at seeing periods of IFR Saturday morning. VFR expected by the end of the period as clouds begin to break apart and cigs lift. North-northwesterly winds will turn more northerly Saturday morning before slowing and becoming more westerly late Saturday afternoon. KMSP...Light rain and MVFR cigs near 2000 feet will continue through about 06Z before cigs drop low-MVFR throughout Saturday morning. Did add a TEMPO for IFR as some CAMs are showing cigs falling to near 900 feet from 08-12Z. VFR expected after 20Z Saturday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...CTG
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion