NWS Forecast Discussion
324 FXUS63 KMPX 221109 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 509 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer days ahead with highs in the 40s and low 50s Sunday through Tuesday. Warm highs in the upper 30s and 40s continue midweek through Friday. - A few chances for light rain/snow next week. Best chance currently is Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 Above normal temperatures are likely for most of the coming week along with a few chances for precipitation. Thermal ridging will become established over the western half of the CONUS this weekend into Monday. This will allow for the eastern periphery of the ridge to push into the Northern Plains through mid-next week. This weekend looks beautiful for later February, though if you are a snow lover say goodbye to all or most of what we have on the ground. Highs today will rise into the 30s for most of the area but a few low 40s values are likely in western MN along the Buffalo Ridge. Highs increase Sunday with upper 30s to lower 40s likely for a majority of the area with the locations near the Buffalo Ridge nearing 50. Combined with light winds and mostly sunny skies, it will be a great weekend for a walk outside if you don`t mind some slush. Overnight lows will also substantially climb starting in the upper teens to lower 20s tonight and then soaring into the lower to mid 30s Sunday night (our normal highs for late February)! While not by much, Monday and Tuesday currently look like the warmest days of the coming week, especially in southwestern MN near the aforementioned Buffalo Ridge. Forecast highs are currently expected to reach the lower 50s, while areas elsewhere will "only" be 10-15 degrees above normal in the lower to mid 40s. As you can see, we should melt most, if not all, of our snowpack pretty quickly into next week. A little bit of uncertainty does exist with Sunday and Monday`s high temperatures as weak shortwaves pass through the region during these periods. Under-predicted cloud cover could keep temperatures lower during the day. Precip-wise these shortwaves don`t look impressive. Low PWATs, weak lift, and struggles to deeply saturate the vertical column all suggest light precip rates, if anything. Currently have PoPs maxing out around 20% with the most likely p-type as rain. Our "best" chance of precipitation for the period is Tuesday night into Wednesday as forecast models show a more pronounced shortwave within the northwesterly flow sliding through. Model timing and location differences have led to a slight smearing of 30% PoPs during the timeframe but PoPs should increase for at least a portion of our forecast area as we get closer to the event. Precip type is also in question, especially if precip begins during the cooler temperatures Tuesday night when snow is more likely. Guidance suggest over 0.1" of QPF is possible, thus people could be waking up to at least a dusting of snow Wednesday morning. Following this system, temperatures will cool by about 5 degrees Thursday and Friday with another brief break in precipitation chances. However, long-range models show the potential for a clipper system to arrive late Friday bringing PoPs back into the equation. Temperatures closer to normal are also a greater possibility next weekend as a bigger push of cold air follows the system. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 506 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Winds will continue out of the SW with speeds under 10kts. High clouds will gradually increase in coverage, particularly this evening through tonight, but ceilings are expected to remain above 10 kft. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming SW. WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA early. Wind NW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...JPC
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion