NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMPX 021136
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
536 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy weather this weekend with 70s likely Sunday
  east of a cold front.

- Next chance of precip late Sunday thru Monday and again late
  week, but any precip amounts should remain quite low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

Clear skies and light winds are leading to a quiet morning so
far across the region. A cold front was analyzed from southwest
to central and northeast Minnesota. The front won`t move much
today, but will retreat back north as a warm front across
western Minnesota this morning. Southerly flow will increase
this afternoon south of the front and warmer air will work in.
925 mb temps of +11 to +13C suggest highs in the mid 60s across
most of the area, crushing daily records by as much as 10 or 11
degrees in some cases. Consult the climate section below for
specifics. Cooler air will remain near the front in areas north
of St Cloud where highs should remain in the mid 50s.

A potent trough currently bringing incredible snow to the
mountains out west will eject eastward across the northern and
central Plains tonight, spawning an area of low pressure over
the Nebraska Panhandle. That low will track northeast to the Red
River Valley by Sunday morning. Southerly flow will remain
elevated tonight and temperatures may not drop much below 50
over southern MN. The low will begin occluding by midday Sunday,
sending a cold front quickly eastward. The timing of the front
will be critical for high temperatures, but the timing is such
that it still appears likely eastern MN and WI will rise into
the low 70s before its passage. This would mark the earliest
70 degree high on record by a couple days at MSP and EAU, adding
to the long list of records broken this cold season. High
temperatures were cooled a bit across western MN as confidence
in the front`s timing increased. It`s possible a dry line could
precede the cold front by a couple hours, increasing the fire
weather threat across southern MN in the afternoon. A few
showers could develop east of I-35 late in the day, but overall
it`s looking like a dry frontal passage. A few additional rain
or snow showers could develop with another shortwave moving
through late Sunday night and Monday, however amounts will be
minimal.

A cooler and continued quiet weather pattern will dominate much
of next week. A system heading east from the West Coast will
track to our north late week and may bring us a low chance for
precip. The majority of the forcing looks to slide north and
moisture will be lacking, so it may end up being another dry
front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

VFR through tonight with SCT/BKN high clouds. Patchy MVFR
stratus looks possible early tomorrow morning, although
confidence is low on a ceiling developing as opposed to FEW/SCT
low clouds. Winds will increase this morning with generally
easterly to southeasterly winds gusting around 20 kts this
afternoon. Winds will remain elevated overnight, with LLWS up to
50 kts between 020-030 kft likely overnight.

KMSP...Southeast winds with gusts of 20-25 kts develop by noon,
and will likely remain gusty overnight. LLWs up to 50 kts
develops overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN PM...VFR. Slgt chc -SHRA late. Wind SW 20G35kts.
MON...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

Record high temperatures are likely today and Sunday. If MSP
manages to reach 70 or higher, it will be the earliest 70
degree day on record. The current record for earliest 70 degree
day is March 5, 2000. Forecast vs record highs for our three
climate sites are listed below.

***Record Highs Sat Mar 2***

Location | Forecast | Record
------------------------------
   MSP   |    65    | 54 (1923)

   STC   |    61    | 53 (1934)

   EAU   |    64    | 58 (1923)


***Record Highs Sun Mar 3***

Location | Forecast | Record
------------------------------
   MSP   |    72    | 65 (1905) *This would be the earliest 70
                                 on record (Mar 5).
   STC   |    64    | 61 (1905)

   EAU   |    71    | 58 (1894) *This would be the earliest 70
                                 on record (Mar 5).

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...ETA
CLIMATE...BED

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org