NWS Forecast Discussion
987 FXUS63 KMPX 131140 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 540 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures through Saturday, warmer next week. - Dry weather continues into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026 Clear skies & calm winds are leading to a chilly night as Canadian high pressure settles over the region. Lows have dropped into the low 20s across much of the area, except across potions of western Wisconsin where stratus coming off of Lake Superior has limited radiational cooling & kept temperatures steady around 30 degrees. The chilly start to the day means we`ll see another day where afternoon highs remain in the 30s despite plenty of sunshine, & another cold night is expected with low in the upper teens to low 20s for Sunday morning. Temperatures begin to warm Sunday as southerly flow returns on the backside of departing high pressure. The warmup really commences early next week as upper-levl ridging builds over the central CONUS & ensemble guidance continues to high light temperature anomalies of 15-20 degrees above normal by mid- week. Much of this temperature signal will be felt during the overnight hours with overnight lows expected to remain in the 40s, but we could see some 60s across the area Wednesday & thursday afternoons deepening on the extent of cloud cover. Dry weather continues through at least midweek until a deepening trough over the western US pushes the ridging off to our east. Models are still spread on the strength & track of any disturbances that round the trough & pass through the Upper Midwest, & thus on the extent of precipitation chances for later in the week. While it`s hard to pin down exact precipitation chances, we`ll be in a more active pattern beginning Thursday & continuing into next weekend so at least some amount of precipitation, likely rain given forecast temperatures, is likely through this period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 537 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026 A band of borderline VFR/MVFR stratus will linger over western WI through the day (EAU definitely, RNH less certain), but otherwise mostly clear skies are expected through the period. Winds will vary between northwesterly & northeasterly through the day but speeds will remain around 5 kts or less. Winds become light & variable tonight, with a generally easterly direction. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...ETA
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion