NWS Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS63 KMPX 291207 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 607 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 .UPDATED for 12Z Aviation Discussion... Issued at 602 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 && .DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 324 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Key Messages: - Very cold through early next week with little chance for precipitation. - A relative warm up is expected by late week, but there`s still model discrepancies regarding how `warm` we may get. TODAY AND TOMORROW... High pressure is settling in across the Northern Plains as the system that brushed far southern Minnesota and brought a narrow band of heavy snow to northern Iowa yesterday continues to track across southern Wisconsin. Behind it, a broad area of light radar returns is showing up over eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota, but this snow is only showing up in a small handful of surface observations. Any light snow/flurries that are managing to reach the ground will come to an end over the next few hours with little to no accumulation expected. It will be several days before we have anything to look at on radar again, so attention turns to watching the temperatures bottom out during the early morning hours for the next couple of days. As of 2am, MSP still has yet to record a temperature below zero this month, but that will only remain true for another couple hours. Our coldest morning of 2023 is expected today with lows dipping just below zero for western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota to temperatures falling into the double digits below zero across western and central Minnesota. These temperatures combined with west- northwest winds of 5-10mph translate to wind chills of -15 to near -30 across the area. Tomorrow morning looks to be the coldest day of the period with lows of -10 to -20 and wind chills of -25 to -35 or colder. The only potential issue with this forecast is the placement of the aforementioned surface high and what that will do to our wind speeds. With the center of the high expected to drift closer to Minnesota/Iowa by Monday, we could end up with lighter winds, which lowers the confidence in our wind chill forecast. In any case, another round of wind chill headlines will be needed for tonight into tomorrow morning, but will let the current ones expire and reassess the need for a warning vs advisory for some areas later today. TUESDAY AND BEYOND... Tuesday will be more of the same, but by Wednesday we see the cold finally begin to loosen its grip. As mentioned in previous discussions, there is still a high amount of uncertainty on the extent of this relative warm up, but the NBM does continue to look like a good middle ground with highs returning to early February normals by the weekend. A weak clipper may try and sneak down late in the week, but right now, chances for snow look very low to end the first month of 2023 and the start of February. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 602 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 VFR conditions throughout and northwest winds becoming more westerly. No weather-related aviation hazards expected. KMSP... VFR conditions throughout and northwest winds becoming more westerly. No weather-related aviation hazards expected, but temperatures will be cold this week. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts. Tue...VFR. Winds SW 10-15 kts. Wed...VFR. Winds variable 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for Chippewa-Douglas- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Stearns- Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine. Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Anoka-Benton- Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright. WI...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Barron-Dunn- Pierce-Polk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...JRB
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion