NWS Forecast Discussion
840 FXUS63 KMPX 082339 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 539 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow comes to an end this afternoon across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. - Much colder next week, with temperatures 15-25 degrees below normal midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025 Snow continues across much of the area early this afternoon with the heaviest pocket just south of the Twin Cities in southeast MN. Visibilities in this pocket have dropped to near or just under a mile, as persistent 700 hPa frontogenesis enhances the snowfall. The precip as a whole will continue east throughout this afternoon, eventually exiting west-central WI by early this evening. The northern portion of the CWA (central to eastern MN and our northern WI counties) has received the most snow so far; generally around 4- 6". This includes portions of the north metro. However, amounts steadily drop to the south with about 3-4" in the south metro and 1- 2" in south-central and southeastern MN. Another inch or so of snow is possible before finally tapering off this evening. Skies will gradually become mostly clear during tonight as lows fall near 0 to - 10. Some localized areas could see much cooler temperatures given the fresh snow, clearing skies, and light winds. Sunday looks very pleasant for outdoor winter activities with continued few clouds and highs in the mid teens to mid 20s. Our next opportunity for snow arrives the latter half of Monday as a positively-tilted shortwave and cold front sag south from Manitoba. Forecast models try to produce QPF (snow) over southern MN, but forecast soundings reveal the vertical profile has a very hard time becoming completely saturated. This is especially true in the low-levels beneath the DGZ. The 20-40% PoPs produced by NBM seems reasonable as some light snow (to around an inch) is a possibility but anything heavy is unlikely. A blast of arctic air will follow the cold frontal passage Monday night dropping lows below zero area-wide. Central and western MN look to be the coldest with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper negative teens. Our western MN counties may actually flirt with Cold Weather Advisory criteria as wind chills are forecast to fall to near -30 early Tuesday morning. Tuesday looks quiet as high pressure passes overhead. Temperatures will continue to be well below normal with highs of 5 to -5. Sub-zero nights are favored through at least Thursday night with mid to upper negative teens possible in our northern CWA counties. Highs will also generally range from single digits to mid teens likely through the remainder of the work week. Another chance of snow is possible mid-next week as forecast guidance favors the development of a weaker cyclone over the Midwest. However, the bulk of this system should be to our south as the main trough and its jetstreak pass through the Southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Long-range guidance also shows another amplified shortwave crossing the CONUS next weekend, which again would lead to the development of a surface cyclone somewhere over the central CONUS. But, our location being within more of the very cold arctic air mass should mean that this system again remains to our south. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 539 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025 MVFR clouds will clear from west to east across eastern MN and western WI this evening. No concerns thereafter with light winds and VFR conditions. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible late. Wind NW 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind SE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CTG AVIATION...Borghoff
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion