NWS Forecast Discussion
962 FXUS63 KMPX 241100 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 600 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm today, followed by a return to seasonal temperatures for much of the upcoming week. - Multiple chances for rain through the middle of next week. Heaviest rainfall amounts expected across western MN. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Slow-moving band of rain showers is exiting eastward across western WI, with a more recent batch trailing showers captured on radar over portions of central MN. These showers have developed within a 40- 50kt LLJ that spans from SW to NE across MN. Not anticipating these showers to be too heavy as latest ACARS data along with forecast soundings depict a very dry lowest 10k feet of the column along with a lack of elevated instability. Breezy southeasterly surface flow combined with cloud cover is working to limit cooling, so morning lows are on track to only dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s (this is ~5-7 degrees warmer than normal highs this late in October!). One more warm day ahead, as the Upper Midwest begins the day located within the warm sector of a deepening surface cyclone positioned over south central Canada. The system is progged to rapidly lift northeast through the day and will send a trailing cold front southeastward across the forecast area. The front is progged to be near the border of the Dakotas and MN by daybreak, where showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible through the morning. The morning frontal position sets the stage for a 10+ degree high temperature gradient from western MN to western WI. The earlier frontal passage across western MN will limit heating and support highs in the lower 60s. Surface heating is forecast to be more efficient through the morning and into the early afternoon to the east of the front over much of east- central and southeastern MN as well as western WI. Filtered sunshine and ongoing WAA will yield highs in the low to mid 70s for locations that remain east of the front through midday. The band of rain showers will move east towards the I-35 corridor this afternoon and continue to drift eastward through the evening. Rainfall amounts will be the greatest across western MN (isolated tenth to quarter inch amounts possible) and decrease with eastward movement through the day (a few hundredths across southeastern MN/western WI). Winds turn northwesterly behind the frontal passage and will usher in much cooler air for Sunday. Forecast highs fall to more seasonal levels in the low to mid 50s. The mostly cloudy and cooler Sunday weather will also feature the potential for a few isolated raindrops. Better chances for widespread rain (particularly across the western half of the forecast area) will arrive early in the work week as a compact upper-level shortwave lifts north through the Plains. Associated surface low is forecast to develop and track from central NE to northwestern MN Monday into Tuesday. This evolution will combine with PWATs 200-250% of normal to support a shield of heavy precipitation along the surface low track. A swath of 1-1.5" rainfall amounts appears most likely along the consensus low track from central NE to eastern SD into far western MN. While most communities will observe rain, overall amounts will lower as one moves east from far western MN. Continued cloud cover and rain spreading north results in cooler highs in the 40s across much of central/western MN on Monday. The aforementioned upper-level shortwave is progged to shear out near the International Border as a more potent trailing wave digs across the northern CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday. This will spawn a surface cyclone near the International Border, once again placing the Upper Midwest on the "warm side" of the system. Temperatures should rebound into the 50s/60s on Tuesday prior to the passage of another front late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Guidance varies on the timing and coverage of precipitation during this period, but the 30-50% PoPs early in the day on Wednesday tend to represent the forecast uncertainties well at this distance. Our latest forecast shows highs in the low to mid 60s following the early morning precipitation on Wednesday. We`ll note that these temperatures may be too warm should the timing and evolution of upper-level and surface features slow down in upcoming forecasts. The second half of next week features a return to large scale ridging over central CONUS, however influence from an active southwesterly jet may support occasional rain chances. In addition, the ridging is fueling a growing number of ensemble members (including machine learning ensemble counterparts) that feature a return to above normal temperatures heading into Halloween weekend. Should this become more of a "trend" we could see the NBM warm out of the upper 50s (which is already above normal) late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 12z TAF package is largely unchanged as the going forecast is on track. A cold front will move eastward across the TAF sites later today and will result in a wind shift from out of the south to out of the northwest. Breezy southerly winds will gust up to 25kts prior to the frontal passage. Winds then diminish behind the front heading into this evening. A brief period of VFR showers may accompany the frontal passage. Coverage of showers will likely be greatest across western MN and then will become more scattered as the boundary moves east later in the period. Cigs prevail VFR for the majority of the period, though a brief dip to MVFR cannot be ruled out in association with shower chances. KMSP...No major changes to pass along with the new 12z TAF. Best chance for -SHRA is between 22-01z. Most significant wind shift from WSW to NW is forecast to occur during this time frame. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind N 5kts. MON...-RA/MVFR likely, chc IFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. TUE...-SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Strus AVIATION...Strus
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion