NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMPX 291207
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
607 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

.UPDATED for 12Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 602 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

Key Messages:

- Very cold through early next week with little chance for
precipitation.

- A relative warm up is expected by late week, but there`s still
model discrepancies regarding how `warm` we may get.

TODAY AND TOMORROW... High pressure is settling in across the
Northern Plains as the system that brushed far southern Minnesota and
brought a narrow band of heavy snow to northern Iowa yesterday
continues to track across southern Wisconsin. Behind it, a broad area
of light radar returns is showing up over eastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota, but this snow is only showing up in a small
handful of surface observations. Any light snow/flurries that are
managing to reach the ground will come to an end over the next few
hours with little to no accumulation expected. It will be several
days before we have anything to look at on radar again, so attention
turns to watching the temperatures bottom out during the early
morning hours for the next couple of days.

As of 2am, MSP still has yet to record a temperature below zero this
month, but that will only remain true for another couple hours. Our
coldest morning of 2023 is expected today with lows dipping just
below zero for western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota to
temperatures falling into the double digits below zero across
western and central Minnesota. These temperatures combined with west-
northwest winds of 5-10mph translate to wind chills of -15 to near
-30 across the area. Tomorrow morning looks to be the coldest day of
the period with lows of -10 to -20 and wind chills of -25 to -35 or
colder. The only potential issue with this forecast is the placement
of the aforementioned surface high and what that will do to our wind
speeds. With the center of the high expected to drift closer to
Minnesota/Iowa by Monday, we could end up with lighter winds, which
lowers the confidence in our wind chill forecast. In any case,
another round of wind chill headlines will be needed for tonight
into tomorrow morning, but will let the current ones expire and
reassess the need for a warning vs advisory for some areas later
today.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND... Tuesday will be more of the same, but by
Wednesday we see the cold finally begin to loosen its grip. As
mentioned in previous discussions, there is still a high amount of
uncertainty on the extent of this relative warm up, but the NBM does
continue to look like a good middle ground with highs returning to
early February normals by the weekend. A weak clipper may try and
sneak down late in the week, but right now, chances for snow look
very low to end the first month of 2023 and the start of February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 602 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

VFR conditions throughout and northwest winds becoming more westerly.
No weather-related aviation hazards expected.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout and northwest winds becoming more westerly.
No weather-related aviation hazards expected, but temperatures will
be cold this week.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Winds SW 10-15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds variable 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for Chippewa-Douglas-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Stearns-
     Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Anoka-Benton-
     Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Mille
     Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-
     Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright.

WI...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Barron-Dunn-
     Pierce-Polk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JRB

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org