NWS Forecast Discussion
623 FXUS63 KMPX 300447 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1047 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold and dry weather continues through Saturday morning. Wind chills should remain warmer than the threshold for a Cold Weather Advisory - Confidence increasing in light snow Saturday night into Sunday. Most locations will see around an inch of accumulation. - Temperatures warm to near/above normal values through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Today through Sunday...It was another clear and crisp day across the region. Satellite imagery and surface obs showed mostly sunny skies with light northwest winds. Temperatures were still on the cold side, with highs struggling to break double digits. Meanwhile an area of clouds with some light snow showers was located across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. This was on the leading edge of a very positively tilted upper level wave that will swing down across the Upper Midwest and eventually strengthen into the strong nor`easter off the Carolina coast as it couples with the sub tropical on Saturday. Before it does so, expect clouds to increase overnight, which will limit the cooling that well see. Temperatures will still drop below zero, but winds will be less than 10 mph. This will bring wind chills of -20 to -30, which is slightly warmer than the threshold for a Cold Weather Advisory. Farther north in Minnesota, expect colder temperatures and slightly more breezy conditions. Temperatures will remain cold on Friday, with another cold night lasting into Saturday morning as well. The main concern comes late Saturday into Sunday, when a weakening upper level wave approaches from the northwest. Warm air advection ahead of this wave will lead to clouds and light snow. Forecast soundings show only meager lift, but are saturated, so confidence has increased that there will be falling snow Saturday night into Sunday as the band moves from west to east across the region, but since the system is falling apart and relatively moisture- starved, most locations will only see around an inch. The cold air advection and surface pressure gradient are not too strong, so wind speeds should only be about 10 to 20 mph, peaking Sunday afternoon as the snow ends. Monday through Wednesday...Northwest flow will continue across the region, but there will be a few weak systems that bring slightly warmer air that has been modified out west on the lee side of the Rockies. That means temperatures near or slightly above the seasonal average for early February, with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Along with these warmer temperatures comes small chances for snow, but at this point any system lacks the ingredients to produce significant precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 A line of stratus is moving through the region from north to south to begin the TAF period, with MVFR CIGS expected until it passes. Beginning around 08z at AXN the stratus will be progressing until out of the area around 12z for MKT. After the MVFR stratus moves through, VFR is expected for all sites, becoming SKC by the end of the period. Winds initially at 360-020 around 7-9kts will shift back towards 330-360 with similar speeds later in the period. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Chc MVFR -SN. Wind SW 5-15kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...TDH
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion