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NWS Forecast Discussion

840
FXUS63 KMPX 082339
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
539 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow comes to an end this afternoon across eastern Minnesota
  and western Wisconsin.

- Much colder next week, with temperatures 15-25 degrees below
  normal midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

Snow continues across much of the area early this afternoon with the
heaviest pocket just south of the Twin Cities in southeast MN.
Visibilities in this pocket have dropped to near or just under a
mile, as persistent 700 hPa frontogenesis enhances the snowfall. The
precip as a whole will continue east throughout this afternoon,
eventually exiting west-central WI by early this evening. The
northern portion of the CWA (central to eastern MN and our northern
WI counties) has received the most snow so far; generally around 4-
6". This includes portions of the north metro. However, amounts
steadily drop to the south with about 3-4" in the south metro and 1-
2" in south-central and southeastern MN. Another inch or so of snow
is possible before finally tapering off this evening. Skies will
gradually become mostly clear during tonight as lows fall near 0 to -
10. Some localized areas could see much cooler temperatures given
the fresh snow, clearing skies, and light winds. Sunday looks very
pleasant for outdoor winter activities with continued few clouds and
highs in the mid teens to mid 20s. Our next opportunity for snow
arrives the latter half of Monday as a positively-tilted shortwave
and cold front sag south from Manitoba. Forecast models try to
produce QPF (snow) over southern MN, but forecast soundings reveal
the vertical profile has a very hard time becoming completely
saturated. This is especially true in the low-levels beneath the
DGZ. The 20-40% PoPs produced by NBM seems reasonable as some light
snow (to around an inch) is a possibility but anything heavy is
unlikely.

A blast of arctic air will follow the cold frontal passage Monday
night dropping lows below zero area-wide. Central and western MN
look to be the coldest with temperatures dropping into the mid to
upper negative teens. Our western MN counties may actually flirt
with Cold Weather Advisory criteria as wind chills are forecast to
fall to near -30 early Tuesday morning. Tuesday looks quiet as high
pressure passes overhead. Temperatures will continue to be well
below normal with highs of 5 to -5. Sub-zero nights are favored
through at least Thursday night with mid to upper negative teens
possible in our northern CWA counties. Highs will also generally
range from single digits to mid teens likely through the remainder
of the work week. Another chance of snow is possible mid-next week
as forecast guidance favors the development of a weaker cyclone over
the Midwest. However, the bulk of this system should be to our south
as the main trough and its jetstreak pass through the Southern
Plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Long-range guidance
also shows another amplified shortwave crossing the CONUS next
weekend, which again would lead to the development of a surface
cyclone somewhere over the central CONUS. But, our location being
within more of the very cold arctic air mass should mean that this
system again remains to our south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025

MVFR clouds will clear from west to east across eastern MN and
western WI this evening. No concerns thereafter with light winds
and VFR conditions.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible late. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org