NWS Forecast Discussion
096 FXUS63 KMPX 120826 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 326 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoke/haze aloft will gradually improve today. - Moisture associated with Tropical Storm Francine will be advected northward by this weekend, leading to increased chances for showers across eastern portions of the forecast area. - Temperatures will continue to run 10 plus degrees above normal through the end of the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Upper Midwest has been quiet so far tonight, which has been the theme these previous 7 nights. There could be localized patchy fog in central Minnesota, but we have yet to observe that this morning. There are two areas of active weather: the Northern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Water vapor imagery show a vigorous mid-level trough across SW Canada and the nw U.S. Areas of convection are moving north into Canada from Montana & North Dakota. Further downstream, ridging prevails over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes region. This will be the case for the next several days and will keep our weather warm & dry. Highs today will range in the mid-80s with mostly clear skies that will see the elevated wildfire smoke layer gradually thin out throughout the day with conditions improving for the end of the week. Persistence forecasting would prove beneficial with only subtle changes in the forecast expected over the next several days. Highs will remain in the 80s with lows in the 60s. Saturday features the only blip on the radar as a potent low drives north into central Canada and it`s sfc front will push east across the Dakotas and into western Minnesota. It`ll be sparsely populated with showers/storms as it moves across the Dakotas with limited moisture to work it. So where will this system gain additional moisture given the blocking ridge aloft over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes? Tropical Storm Francine will gradually move north along the Mississippi River over the next few days. Francine will eventually lose tropical characteristics and the remnant moisture will partially advect northwest from the mid-MS Valley into the Upper MS Valley. This moisture will help reignite showers on Saturday across portions of the Upper Midwest. The best chances to receive showers Saturday afternoon is across western and central Wisconsin. Eastern Minnesota could see a few isolated showers, but dry air in place will limit their ability to saturate the lower atmosphere. QPF forecast appear fair with a tenth or two possible but most will remain dry. Sunday through Tuesday return back to a warm & dry stretch with highs in the 80s. Our normal highs are in the low 70s next week so our high temperatures will run 10+ degrees above normal. Our pattern will begin to shake up by mid-week as the ridge & blocking begin to break down across eastern NOAM. Additional rain chances make their way into the forecast Tuesday night thru Wednesday. Ensembles show a better signal for more widespread precipitation toward the end of next week into next next weekend. This would support the 8-14 day CPC outlook that highlights an increase likelihood of above average precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 The only TAF concern continues to be upper level smoke/haze producing FEW/SCT250 with SKC expected otherwise. A few gusts at 20kts are possible from 150-180 during the afternoon, dropping back again towards the later part of the period. No concerns, VFR for all sites. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hewett AVIATION...TDH
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion