NWS Forecast Discussion
867 FXUS63 KMPX 251157 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 657 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers possible throughout the day today for portions of western/ central Minnesota with more widespread rainfall arriving late Sunday through Monday. - Cooler and drier weather for Tuesday onward with some near or below freezing temperatures possible through Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 A southwest to northeast oriented band of rain is cutting across eastern South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota this morning. It appears that this precip is still fighting the low level dry air as is moves into Minnesota based on surface obs. As the layer moistens over the next few hours, expecting shower activity to increase in coverage up into west central Minnesota. Have boosted PoPs and QPF quite a bit for this time period. There looks to be a couple rounds of rain for today with a short break through midday before additional rain arrives. QPF totals during the day today are generally a few hundredths to around a quarter inch, concentrated over western Minnesota. Rain chances ramp up again tonight and shift into central Minnesota where around a quarter inch of rain is possible. For Sunday into Monday, there will be another break in the rain chances Sunday morning before a low moves across the Central Plains. Ample warm air and moisture advection associated with this low will work to increase rainfall chances area wide. QPF amounts of 1 to 1.5" through early Tuesday still seem reasonable, with a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall highlighting eastern and southern Minnesota and all of Wisconsin. Cooler air will work in behind this system with highs in the low to mid 50s Tuesday through the end of the week. Temperature wise, it`s the overnight/morning lows that will pose a threat to any susceptible vegetation as temps fall to near freezing for some. We`ll warm back to near normal by the end of the period with continued dry conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026 What you see now is what we`ll see the rest of the weekend, a band of light rain wandering across MN. Rain today looks remain north of MKT and EAU, but all other terminals have rain chances. MSP/RNH will be this morning, while RWF/AXN/STC will have the chance for several hours rain this afternoon/evening. We did pull back quite a bit on the MVFR cig mention this period, with RAP soundings showing MVFR cigs arriving around 21z at RWF, with all other terminals not really looking to see MVFR cig potential increase until late tonight or Sunday morning. KMSP...After a little light rain through 15z, MSP looks to remain dry until the main batch of rain arrives Sunday evening. CIGS should remain VFR until that main batch of showers arrives Sunday evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, bcmg MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind E 5-10kts. MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. TUE...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...MPG
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion