NWS Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS63 KMPX 240350 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1050 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Rain likely Wednesday into Thursday with below normal temperatures - A warmer and slightly humid air mass settles in for the holiday weekend Satellite imagery shows diurnal cu across the northeast two thirds of the area this afternoon, with high clouds encroaching across the southwest. Mid/high clouds will continue to increase into tonight ahead of the upper trough located over the high Plains. Some light precipitation could impact the far western portion of the area through this evening as a northern stream shortwave scoots east along the international border, but it will be fairly spotty and most locations will see little if any. The main show, in terms of precipitation, will arrive late Tuesday night and linger into Thursday as low pressure lifts northeast from the southern Plains, with widespread light to moderate rainfall across the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will be well below normal Wednesday and will not change much throughout the day. The surface low shift into the upper Great Lakes on Thursday, with some lingering light rain across the eastern portion of the forecast area. A weak surface ridge will build into the area Friday, with dry weather and moderating temperatures. Temperatures will rise more dramatically as we head into the weekend and return flow intensifies. Some chances for SHRA/TSRA will accompany the warm advection, with chance PoPs from Friday night through the remainder of the forecast period. However, the long duration of chance PoPs is due in large part to disagreement in the forecast details, with significant spread in the ensemble guidance after Friday. We will likely wind up with a couple of shorter and more distinct periods with a greater chance for SHRA/TSRA. The NBM CWASP guidance suggests chances for some severe weather could return by Sunday into Monday with warmth and humidity back in our region, and the CSU machine learning guidance also brings some low end severe weather probabilities back into the area for Sunday/Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022 VFR throughout the period as rain chances look to hold off until just after the period ends. We will go back and forth between SCT and BKN cloud decks, gradually lowering throughout the day. Winds will be mild at 120-150 shifting towards 180 at or below 10kts with no major gusts. KMSP...-SHRA becomes possible in the final 6 hours of the period, however confidence is too low to even put in a prob30 for now. Expect -SHRA to enter the TAF somewhere within the 24-36 hour time window. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...SHRA/MVFR, chc IFR. Wind NE to N 10-20kts. THU...MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO MPX AVIATION...TDH
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion
