NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMPX 240350
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1050 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain likely Wednesday into Thursday with below normal temperatures

- A warmer and slightly humid air mass settles in for the holiday
  weekend

Satellite imagery shows diurnal cu across the northeast two thirds
of the area this afternoon, with high clouds encroaching across the
southwest. Mid/high clouds will continue to increase into tonight
ahead of the upper trough located over the high Plains. Some light
precipitation could impact the far western portion of the area
through this evening as a northern stream shortwave scoots east along
the international border, but it will be fairly spotty and most
locations will see little if any. The main show, in terms of
precipitation, will arrive late Tuesday night and linger into
Thursday as low pressure lifts northeast from the southern Plains,
with widespread light to moderate rainfall across the area on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be well below normal Wednesday and will
not change much throughout the day. The surface low shift into the
upper Great Lakes on Thursday, with some lingering light rain across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. A weak surface ridge will
build into the area Friday, with dry weather and moderating
temperatures. Temperatures will rise more dramatically as we head
into the weekend and return flow intensifies. Some chances for
SHRA/TSRA will accompany the warm advection, with chance PoPs from
Friday night through the remainder of the forecast period. However,
the long duration of chance PoPs is due in large part to disagreement
in the forecast details, with significant spread in the ensemble
guidance after Friday. We will likely wind up with a couple of
shorter and more distinct periods with a greater chance for
SHRA/TSRA. The NBM CWASP guidance suggests chances for some severe
weather could return by Sunday into Monday with warmth and humidity
back in our region, and the CSU machine learning guidance also brings
some low end severe weather probabilities back into the area for
Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

VFR throughout the period as rain chances look to hold off until just
after the period ends. We will go back and forth between SCT and BKN
cloud decks, gradually lowering throughout the day. Winds will be
mild at 120-150 shifting towards 180 at or below 10kts with no major
gusts.

KMSP...-SHRA becomes possible in the final 6 hours of the period,
however confidence is too low to even put in a prob30 for now. Expect
-SHRA to enter the TAF somewhere within the 24-36 hour time window.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...SHRA/MVFR, chc IFR. Wind NE to N 10-20kts.
THU...MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO MPX
AVIATION...TDH

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org