NWS Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMPX 262125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
Issued by National Weather Service Duluth MN
425 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Strong southeast winds will continue into this evening and will
subside overnight. A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM for
our western zones. Clouds will gradually build in from the west ahead
of an approaching negatively tilted trough over the Intermountain
West as of this afternoon. That trough will eventually move eastward
into middle of the CONUS. Isentropic forcing for ascent ahead of the
trough axis will result in widespread rain and a few embedded
thunderstorms starting overnight tonight and continuing through and
Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts will range from around one-half
inch up to around an inch by Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Light rain will linger into Thursday as the trough bifurcates into a
cutoff low over the Tennessee Valley and a trough over the Canadian
Prairies. Showers will taper off by Friday morning as a high
amplitude ridge builds farther eastward with time. Conditions will be
fairly quiet for much of the extended period. Temperatures will be
relatively mild through the weekend. A weak cool front will move
across the region from the northwest Sunday night and Monday, with a
dry passage expected. Temperatures trend cooler heading into next
week behind the cool front with highs in the low and middle 40s


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

VFR conditions are expected to start the period. Gusty southeast
winds are expected this afternoon and into tonight with gusts up to
30 kts for much of the area. Terminals farther west will see
slightly higher gusts this afternoon, with values exceeding 30 kts.
Rain will move in tonight into tomorrow morning. Cigs are likely to
reduce to MVFR as this rain moves in. In addition, visibilities are
likely to reduce to MVFR. A strong low-level jet tonight ahead of
the bulk of precip may lead to some low-level wind shear. Confidence
is still too low for widespread inclusion of LLWS. However, a
mention of wind shear was made for KMSP tonight into early tomorrow

KMSP...Wx nil til early Wed as high pressure shifts E and a system
emerges from the Rockies. Breezy SE wind 16G30kt to continue w/ only
a slight drop late evng. Will be near LLWS criteria overnight,
though core of winds around 3K ft AGL and sfc winds staying up. First
wave of rain showers could impact the terminal as soon as 05- 06z;
more significant precip will not arrive until around sunrise. Cannot
completely rule out an embedded TS, though instability decreases
quickly along IA/MN border and as time goes on Wed AM. Addl showers
poss throughout the rest of the TAF period. Winds will ease some Wed
aftn as inverted trof moves closer to the area.

Thu...MVFR/RA likely, IFR possible. Wind N 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind N 10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts becoming W.


MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Douglas-Lac
     Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.




NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org