NWS Forecast Discussion
354 FXUS63 KMPX 150902 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 302 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gradual warming, with temperatures peaking on Tuesday around 40 degrees. - Mixed precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday with cooler, more seasonable, temperatures going into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Current satellite shows a deck of mid-level clouds covering most of the Upper Midwest, with scattered low-level stratus hidden beneath. These low-level clouds will become more widespread through the morning, leading to a mostly cloudy day. Winds continue to occasionally gust to 25+ knots across southern Minnesota, but should die off in the next few hours. Compared to Sunday, a much warmer morning is in store across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but temperatures will still be brisk in the mid- teens. It will warm into the 20s along and NE of I-94 and lower 30s SW of I-94 through the day today, but the real `warmth` arrives on Tuesday. Warmer air will advect into the region in association with a mild Pacific airmass, resulting in widespread highs in the 40s. Our deep snowpack will keep temperatures from getting too warm, but going from subzero to 40 above in 48 hours will feel like a heat wave. A weak shortwave trough Tuesday night will break the WAA, but one last push of WAA associated with the the next bigger system should again push temperatures above freezing for Wednesday. The early week warmth will set the stage for a mid-week clipper to move south from Canada. Late Wednesday, a surface low will move into the Upper Midwest. This low is forecast to remain in the northern half of Minnesota, resulting in those across the southern half of the state and western Wisconsin being in the warm sector. Should the low track slightly south, that would move our region closer to the colder side, meaning more snow and less rain. Trends have been fairly consistent in keeping the low to the north, meaning we are most likely going to see a rain or rain/snow mix. A transition to snow on the backside is likely as a potent cold front moves in Thursday morning. Snow amounts will likely stay on the lower side, with accumulations of trace to less than an inch. This will be a situation where Thursday`s high temperature technically occurs at midnight as temperatures will only drop through the day. The timing of this front remains on of the larger uncertainties with this forecast, with a recent trend towards an earlier passage. This would result in an earlier transition from rain to snow, but overall not change much. The transition from rain to snow should be clean, without many P-type concerns. A close eye will be kept on this given the alignment of the transition being within a few hours of the Thursday morning commute. A light period of freezing rain cannot fully be ruled out during the transition, but it is not the likely scenario given forecast soundings in their entirety quickly fall below freezing, leaving little time for any warm nose to cause impacts. Looking to Friday onward, temperatures will moderate to near/slightly below normal with highs in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the single digits to teens. Another weak clipper is possible Friday, as is reflected by scattered 20% PoPs, but an otherwise quiet weather pattern is expected to return for the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1115 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Mid level clouds have overspread the region with patches of lower clouds being masked on satellite imagery. Tonight should be majority VFR, with occasional drops to MVFR levels possible. Forecast soundings continue to highlight most TAF sites falling to MVFR/IFR levels Monday and remaining at those levels through the period. MOS is also beginning to pick up on this trend, so confidence is increasing enough to start introducing IFR cigs in the TAFs. Gusty winds during the next few hours will ease and become light and variable Monday. KMSP...Conditions likely deteriorating through the period, but likely remaining VFR until mid morning Monday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G20kts. WED...MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G20kts. THU...MVFR. Wind S early, bcmg NW 15-20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PV AVIATION...Borghoff
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion