NWS Forecast Discussion
179 FXUS63 KMPX 181727 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Except for possibly a few passing non-accumulating snow showers overnight tonight, dry weather is expected through Wednesday. - Colder temperatures remain in place through Sunday, then temperatures return to well above normal values through the middle of the upcoming work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Surface analysis this early this morning shows a potent 996mb low over Lake Superior with a trailing cold front sagging southwest over WI/IL/MO. Expansive high pressure sits over the Rockies, extending as far east as the Mississippi River and as far west as the Pacific shoreline. Aloft, a wound-up 516dam low sites over the Manitoba/Ontario border, with a trough axis extending south over the North-Central Plains. A highly amplified ridge is moving onshore the Pacific Coast, helping nudge the trough eastward, albeit slowly. The cold front will continue to press east through the day while surface high pressure moves in from the west. While this will result in gradual clearing (aside from passing high clouds) going through the daylight hours, the area of high pressure over the Rockies will also spill over into the Plains, making for a tightened pressure gradient into the Upper Midwest. This combination of features will make for breezy and dry conditions, potentially near-critical fire weather conditions, through the day today but also continued cold conditions for mid-April. While normal highs are in the mid 50s, highs today will only reach the mid 40s. The lack of airmass change between today and tomorrow will mean that temperatures will have very little change for Sunday, mainly in the mid 40s but temperatures near and southwest of the Minnesota River may creep into the upper 40s for highs. Meanwhile, lows both this morning and early Sunday morning will drop below freezing, potentially as low as the mid 20s. The only chance of precipitation through at least the middle of next week will come late tonight to early Sunday morning as a weak trough axis rounds the western fringes of the departing aforementioned surface low and under the deep upper level low. This trough will coincide its movement over the Upper Midwest with a slightly deeper swath of H7-H5 moisture. Given the sub- freezing depth in the atmosphere at the time it looks to move across the WFO MPX coverage area, there may be a few snow showers moving across our area. No accumulations are expected with much warmer ground temperatures and green-up occurring. Dry and warmer weather is expected through the first half of the upcoming week as the western ridge expands east into the north- central CONUS with high pressure dominating our region of the lower 48. Even with a frontal boundary looking to push through the region on Tuesday, its only impact will be an increase in cloud cover as the depth of atmospheric moisture will be rather lacking and upper level forcing will be moot with incoming ridging. Otherwise, the notable feature will be a return to above normal temperatures for the workweek. Highs will return to the 70s and 80s through Thursday, which is when the next widespread notable rain-maker is expected for our area. That system will move across the Upper Midwest Thursday night through Friday morning, followed by another appreciable cool- down for next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Gusty northwest winds will continue through the rest of the afternoon before settling down some overnight. Tonight, a small, but strong shortwave currently in northern Saskatchewan will swing through southern MN. The HRRR and the rest of the CAMS show forcing with this wave being strong enough to scare out a brief period of snow late tonight into Sunday morning, so added PROB30s to our MN terminals to account for that potential. Behind this wave, it will be back to clear skies and steady northwest winds. KMSP...MVFR, possibly briefly IFR vis snow looks possible as early as 7 or 8z, though it`s closer 12z, when the shortwave moves through that the -SN chances look best. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind S2 10-15G25 kts. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts bcmng N. WED...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JPC AVIATION...MPG
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion