NWS Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS63 KMPX 020505 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 2 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 Smoke and haze conditions have greatly improved across the area with only far western Minnesota still seeing some hazy skies. To the east, a Cu field has developed but there are still plenty of patches of blue sky, which is a welcome sight. While smoke aloft will push back eastward overnight tonight, near surface smoke looks to remain minimal. Because of this, have taken widespread surface smoke/haze out of the forecast through Monday night. Additionally, the MPCA has improved the air quality index from Red/Unhealthy to Orange/Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups for the Minnesota portion of our CWA. An Air Quality Alert remains in place through the short term period. Other than the smoke/haze concerns, the short term forecast will be characterized by pleasant temperatures a few degrees below normal and dew points in the low 50s. Surface observations as of 2:30pm have the entire CWA at 80 degrees or less with comfortable dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s. Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer as a ridge slides further east. Added very low PoPs across our western Wisconsin counties as a weak shortwave may lead to a few showers during the afternoon. Other than that, things remain quiet with high pressure in place. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Aug 1 2021 High pressure continues to dominate on Tuesday, so dry conditions will continue early this week. Smoke will clear on Tuesday as flow throughout the atmosphere moves away from Canada, cutting off the smoke supply. With this change in flow though the weather could also become more active. This change in atmospheric flow will result in more heat and moisture advecting into the Upper Midwest. This will increase temperatures to near 90 by the end of the week with dew points expected to be in the 60s. So nothing tropical, but still much warmer and more humid than our current air mass. This will lead to increased precipitable water values in the 1 to 1.5 inch range, which is right around normal for this time of year. This does however make rain more likely when the appropriate forcing is present. With a shortwave passing the Upper Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday and another possible over next weekend those periods will be our next chances for rain. Most GEFS members are clustering in the 0 to 0.5 inch range for total QPF during this period so while this rain could be beneficial it won`t make much of a dent in Minnesota`s drought. The increase in heat and humidity will provide for some increased instability increasing chances for thunderstorms. Exactly how unstable we get, what kind of cap we get (this played a big role last week), available shear, and the position of surface boundaries will all play a role in determining the risk for any stronger storms. So in summary, smoke clearing this period with warming temperatures and chances for showers/thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 2 2021 Concerns are smoke and possibly patchy ground fog tonight. High pressure along the MN/SD border will drift across the area tonight, with return southwest flow setting up for Monday. Air mass has been quite dry so widespread fog is unlikely, but added a fog tempo group at KSTC and KEAU where patchy fog is not uncommon in these setups. The surface smoke now in west central and southwest MN has begun drifting east, but with weak low level winds, it may take some time for any lower visibilities to occur. Have kept the forecast at 5-6sm for western MN the rest of tonight, then gradually spreading into central/eastern MN and far western WI midday, and later Monday in west central WI. KMSP... No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Tue...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts. Wed...VFR. Wind SW 10-20 kts. Thu...VFR. Wind SW 10-20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dye LONG TERM...NDC AVIATION...TDK
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion
