NWS Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMPX 021211 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
611 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020

Aside from some high clouds, it`s another benign and chilly morning.
Temperatures have dropped back into the teens to mid 20s, which is
near normal for this time of year. A band of clouds stretching from
an upper low over the central Plains to Manitoba will sag southeast
with a cold front through tonight. An increase in clouds will occur
this afternoon across western MN, with the band reaching the rest of
the area this evening. Some clearing will occur overnight as drier
air returns. Despite the frontal passage, Thursday`s highs in the
mid 30s to low 40s won`t differ much from today. Clouds should keep
lows tonight milder than recent nights.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020

If you`ve been reading AFDs the past few days then I have nothing
new to tell you. Same pattern with little moisture being transported
into the Upper Midwest will allow for only very light precipitation
as some upper level waves move across. With the lack of snow pack
and no notable cold air advection temperatures look to remain above
climatological normals for this time of year. Some ensemble guidance
has started to suggest that this pattern will break down late next
week. If this does occur we could be in for some colder near to
below normal temperatures. This is still far enough out that
confidence is not high at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 611 AM CST Wed Dec 2 2020

The sharp leading edge of an MVFR stratus deck is progressing south
at 22 kt. At this rate, it will reach AXN around 18Z, STC at 21Z, and
RWF at 22Z. The rest of the TAF locations should see it arrive after
00Z. Winds will become WNW and increase to 5 to 10 kts this morning.

KMSP...At the current time, it appears stratus will arrive around 00Z
and hang around much of the night. Levels should remain above 1700
ft with the better chance of lower end MVFR levels remaining to the

Thu...VFR. Wind W at 5 to 10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind WNW at 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW at 5 to 10 kts.




SHORT TERM...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org