NWS Forecast Discussion

145
FXUS63 KMPX 042319
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
519 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers tomorrow morning/afternoon with a band of
  amounts 0.75"+ possible. Snow may mix in, but main precip is
  expected to fall as rain.

- Temperatures trend above normal to end the week.

- Another chance for rain returns this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Morning precip observations show an area of
0.1 to 0.3 inches of rain fell across portions of south-central and
east-central MN & western WI. There will be localized light
rain and patchy fog over central WI this afternoon, otherwise dry
conditions are expected until late tonight / early tomorrow morning
when another surface low tracks NE from the central Plains. You
might have to blink twice... the setup looks quite similar to
our Halloween system! The main difference is that less cold air,
and therefore less snow, will be able to fill in throughout the
column. IF snow were to mix in, the best chance looks to be in
portions of southwestern MN along the Buffalo Ridge, and later
on in north-central MN as the system moves north into a colder
airmass after sunset. There should be plenty of moisture/QPF
along the northern band of precip, with a max of 0.75"+ possible
for many locations. Where this band sets up is going to have a
dramatic impact on who sees the highest totals again though,
with a westward shift favoring areas in western/central MN and
an eastward shift favoring locations in eastern MN & western WI.
Even though we are less than 24 hours out, there is still a lot
of spread across models, which highlights the impact and
uncertainty that comes with the exact track of the surface low.
Our current forecast highlights the area of best chance for
seeing this precip max stretching from south- central MN up into
northwestern WI.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Following our system tomorrow, the
forecast will look to dry out through the end of the work week for
most of the area. The best chance for precip during this timeframe
would come overnight Wednesday in southern MN as energy ejects
northeastward off of a spinning low over the Rocky Mountains.
Troughing to the west should allow temperatures to trend
above normal again across the Upper Midwest with most ensembles
placing highs in the mid-upper 50s by Friday. Throw in the fact
that winds are forecast to be around 5-10 mph with limited
cloud cover, it`ll be a pleasant stretch of weather.

THIS WEEKEND... Another strong northward surge of moisture is
expected Saturday into Sunday ahead of a cutoff low that ejects
into the central CONUS. The system track looks to take one similar
to what we`ve seen the past few weeks, with the center of the low
crossing over IA/WI and up through the Great Lakes. This would put
southern MN & western WI in the northern precip shield and primarily
see long duration, light precip. Forecast soundings show a stout
warm layer, even on the backside of the low, so rain looks to be the
main player this weekend. Any shift east or west of the low`s track
would lead to less or more rain for the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

Mainly MVFR cigs/vis are expected overnight before rain
approaches from the south by tomorrow morning. A return to IFR
is expected through much of the day with winds becoming NNE
until early afternoon as the surface low moves through and they
return to a northwesterly direction. MVFR conditions will return
by late in the period.

KMSP...Low end IFR is possible during the late morning/early
afternoon as the bulk of the rain moves through. Precip type is
expected to remain all rain.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Dye

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org