NWS Forecast Discussion
520 FXUS63 KMPX 220954 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 354 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold & dry through Monday. - Chances for snow Tuesday & Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Cold & dry northwest flow persists over the Upper Midwest, so we`re looking at a very similar day to yesterday - albeit with more low-level cloud cover which will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. Afternoon temperatures may not rise out of the single digits across western Minnesota, but another day with highs in the teens is expected elsewhere. Temperatures could drop well-below zero overnight across portions of western & central Minnesota if clouds are able to clear out before dawn, but more likely we will see lows end up within a few degrees of zero. This regime continues through Monday with below- normal temperatures & dry conditions, outside of some flurries at times with the persistent stratus. Midweek, the flow aloft becomes more active as strong northwesterly flow develops with a 150+ kt jet streak setting up over the northern plains & nosing into the Upper Midwest. Numerous disturbances/weak clippers are possible with this flow regime aloft, but guidance remains spread on when & where any of these systems may track midweek. Confidence is higher in the forecast for Tuesday, where the majority of deterministic & ensemble guidance depicts a weak shortwave tracking across northern Minnesota & Wisconsin during the day. This should bring a few hours of light snow to central Minnesota & western Wisconsin with amounts generally expected to be around an inch or less. Wednesday`s system has the potential to be more potent as the jetstreak over the northern tier of the CONUS reaches its max intensity, although guidance remains widely spread on where & when the shortwave from this upper level forcing may track. We`ve seen a notable southward shift with the usually steady AIFS guidance, which currently places the most likely snowfall completely south of the area across South Dakota & Iowa. Still a system to keep an eye on given the potential for plowable snow of 3"+ wherever the band of snow sets up, but there`s just too much spread in the guidance at this time to have a good idea on just where that may fall. Temperatures through next week take on an up & down trend, with aboven-normal temperatures likely south of the expected track of the clipper on Tuesday, followed by cooler temperatures Wednesday (especially where we see the band of precipitation from the clipper). Temperatures bounce back to end the week with well- above-normal temperatures likely Friday as ensemble guidance shows temperature anomalies of 10 degrees or more above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Latest observations reflect an expanding bank of the long awaited MVFR stratus across western/southern portions of MN. AXN/RWF/MKT all open the TAF window with MVFR cigs that are likely to prevail through the duration of the period. Arrival of MVFR stratus remains a challenging forecast at STC/MSP/RNH/EAU and have tried to take a blended approach between the aggressive RAP guidance the slower HRRR/LAMP trends. Flurries may produce minor visibility reductions anywhere that low stratus is present throughout the period. Northwesterly winds remain breezy overnight and are forecast to increase Sunday with peak gusts between 25-30kts likely at most terminals. KMSP...No major changes to the 06z TAF, as the development of an MVFR ceiling is the main forecast focus through Sunday morning. Otherwise, winds remain breezy out of the northwest through Sunday evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind NW becoming S 5-10kts. TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW becoming WNW 10-15kts. WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind NW 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Strus
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion