NWS Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMPX 011942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
242 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023


- Much above normal temperatures continue through at least early
  next week with temperatures in the lower 90s. Highs could be near
  record highs through the weekend.

- Scattered thunderstorms continue in the afternoon through the
  evening into next week.

This evening through Saturday... Southerly flow continues today into
Saturday. With this we will be in continued warm air advection and
will be getting some moisture transport as well. This means more of a
hot and muggy setup today and tomorrow. With a lack of large scale
synoptic support and light wind shear there is little chance for
strong to severe storms. So the rain chances will be for general
airmass thunderstorms from this evening through Saturday. Main
impacts from this will be lightning and periods of heavy rain. The
storms will likely continue to be pulse convection with varying
strength, but could be slow moving with light steering flow. So what
we see today and have seen in past few days will continue to be the
expected weather Friday and Saturday

Sunday through Monday... The heat continue this weekend into Monday
with more days of temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Weaker
flow aloft might help reduce the moisture some which could help it be
a little less muggy outside. Monday could be the start of a cooling
trend, but this varies between ensemble members as some keep the heat
going into later parts of the week. With weaker moisture transport
there is a lower, but still present chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday... A small change in the pattern with
cooler, but still above normal temperatures. This would lead to less
instability and therefore lower, but still present chances for
diurnal convection in the afternoon and evening.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Prevailing VFR continues for this TAF period. Stratocu fields were
beginning to develop across southern MN and Western WI which will
gradually make its way to all sites. Impacts to ceilings are not
anticipated except for any iso/sct SHRA and TSRA that develops this
afternoon. Confidence continues to remain low as to what sites could
see precipitation thus left off any mention of tempos or prob30s.
Southeasterly flow continues with routine diurnal speed changes
tonight through tomorrow.

KMSP...Starting at about 20-21z, the chances for widely scattered
shra/tsra will begin in the metro. This threat for a pop-up shower
than looks to linger with us through the rest of the period.

FRI...VFR. Chc aftn/eve TSRA. Wind SE 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc aftn/eve TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.





NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org