NWS Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS63 KMPX 011942 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 242 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 KEY MESSAGES: - Much above normal temperatures continue through at least early next week with temperatures in the lower 90s. Highs could be near record highs through the weekend. - Scattered thunderstorms continue in the afternoon through the evening into next week. This evening through Saturday... Southerly flow continues today into Saturday. With this we will be in continued warm air advection and will be getting some moisture transport as well. This means more of a hot and muggy setup today and tomorrow. With a lack of large scale synoptic support and light wind shear there is little chance for strong to severe storms. So the rain chances will be for general airmass thunderstorms from this evening through Saturday. Main impacts from this will be lightning and periods of heavy rain. The storms will likely continue to be pulse convection with varying strength, but could be slow moving with light steering flow. So what we see today and have seen in past few days will continue to be the expected weather Friday and Saturday Sunday through Monday... The heat continue this weekend into Monday with more days of temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Weaker flow aloft might help reduce the moisture some which could help it be a little less muggy outside. Monday could be the start of a cooling trend, but this varies between ensemble members as some keep the heat going into later parts of the week. With weaker moisture transport there is a lower, but still present chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Tuesday through Thursday... A small change in the pattern with cooler, but still above normal temperatures. This would lead to less instability and therefore lower, but still present chances for diurnal convection in the afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 1 2023 Prevailing VFR continues for this TAF period. Stratocu fields were beginning to develop across southern MN and Western WI which will gradually make its way to all sites. Impacts to ceilings are not anticipated except for any iso/sct SHRA and TSRA that develops this afternoon. Confidence continues to remain low as to what sites could see precipitation thus left off any mention of tempos or prob30s. Southeasterly flow continues with routine diurnal speed changes tonight through tomorrow. KMSP...Starting at about 20-21z, the chances for widely scattered shra/tsra will begin in the metro. This threat for a pop-up shower than looks to linger with us through the rest of the period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Chc aftn/eve TSRA. Wind SE 10-15kts. SAT...VFR. Chc aftn/eve TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...RMD
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion