NWS Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMPX 222023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
323 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Deep mixing with cold air advection at 850 mb has caused widespread
wind gusts of 25-30 mph this afternoon. Temperatures at 850 mb have
remained above freezing through the early afternoon and has allowed
for temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s along and north of I-
94 and low 60s southward.

Skies are expected to remain mostly clear tonight with the exception
of Western WI which will be on the western periphery of a trough
traveling southeastward through the Eastern Great Lakes.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s overnight as
the pressure gradient gradually weakens with high pressure settling
in over the Northern Plains. So, we will get a break from the breezy
conditions tomorrow, but we will be cooler with forecast highs in
the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

No changes to the extended forecast. Confidence remains high that
clouds will move in late Wednesday into Thursday, and last through
the foreseeable future. A few light rain showers will advance
eastward across the region on Thursday, with chances lingering
through the weekend.

Numerical models have been consistent in showing a shortwave trough
brining clouds and rain across the Upper Midwest late Wednesday into
Thursday. This upper level wave stalls out across the region, and
then several reinforcements of cool air and clouds will accompany a
parade of shortwave troughs, so there is little chance of seeing any
sun for an extended period of time through the end of month into
early November.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

A frontal boundary will cause westerly winds to shift to the
northwest across Eastern MN and West Central WI this afternoon.
Widespread wind gusts near 25 kts are likely until sunset with
winds continuing to subside overnight. The main concern is the
possibility of MVFR ceilings beginning mid-Tuesday morning across
Northwest Wisconsin. At this time, EAU looks to be the only TAF
site to be impacted.

KMSP... No additional concerns.

Tue Night...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind S at 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR/MFVR possible. Chance RW. Wind S at 5-10 kts.
FRI...MVFR. -RA likely Wind S at 5-10 kts.





NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org