NWS Forecast Discussion
488
FXUS63 KMPX 142317
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
517 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Today through Monday, dry and seasonably warm with highs in
the 40s/50s.
- Late Tuesday into Thursday, a large system will bring
widespread precipitation across the region. This system will
have a band of heavy wet snow, but how far north in MN/WI this
snow falls is still uncertain. Currently snow is more likely
north of I-94, and rain is more likely south of I-94, with a
mix in between.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Today through Monday...early afternoon satellite imagery with
surface obs showed a lovely mid-February day across the region with
mostly clear skies and light winds and temperatures in the 40s and
50s across the region. The MSP airport is on track to set a record
high later this afternoon once it eclipses the 50 degree mark, with
the previous record being set back in 1882. This will lead to more
melting snow, and as temperatures cool overnight could see another
round of patchy fog develop across the low-lying areas Sunday
morning.
Sunday will be very similar to today, with light winds. The
only difference will be a little more cloud cover, and slightly
cooler temperatures. Still expect another warm day. On Sunday night,
a weak system will skirt along the international border and bring a
light wintry mix across the north , but we will remain dry. This
system will drag a weak cold front through the region on Monday, but
surface temperatures will be only about a degree or two cooler than
Sunday, with highs still in the 40s and 50s.
Tuesday through Saturday...Attention continues to be fixed on the
large system that will lift up from the southwest on Tuesday, and
bring widespread precipitation across the region through Wednesday
into Thursday. Overall the predictability of a large system brining
a band of heavy wet snow somewhere across the Upper Midwest is high.
The predictability where the rain/snow line will set up is low.
Forecast guidance continue to favor a solution with accumulating
snow across the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin,
transitioning to more rain across central Minnesota and Wisconsin,
with lighter precipitation along I-90. There is certainly room for
this track to shift, which would bring accumulating snow along I-94.
This system will activate pretty much directly overhead along the
weak frontal boundary that pushes through Monday, and eventually
becomes a warm front on Tuesday/night. If this frontal boundary is
farther south, and activates more quickly, than the southern
solution shown by the EC-AIFS would verify. If this frontal boundary
remains farther north, and activates more slowly, than the heavy
snow band will be to the north as well. For now, pretty much stuck
with the blended guidance that has the heaviest snow falling north of
the forecast area.
Looking ahead, chances for precipitation continue into next weekend,
as a longwave trough remains across the Mountain West, with a strong
upper level jet on the southern side of it. This will lead to
shortwave troughs moving across the central CONUS, but the timing
and placement of these PV anomalies is tough to predict. One thing
that looks more likely is the cooler, sub-freezing temperatures to
end the week, meaning that any precipitation will likely fall as
snow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Status quo aviation forecast with VFR and light winds outside of
the fog chance in the morning. This fog will be most likely in
central Minnesota impacting AXN and STC. Also could see some fog
extend down into the Wisconsin terminals. Best chance for dense
fog will be AXN and STC where some guidance like the LAMP
continues to bring in 1/4SM dense fog. Moved vis down slightly from
the last set of TAFs, but not confident enough yet to add dense fog
into the TAF. Will look again at 06Z for the next issuance to
see if confidence in dense fog increases. The question right now
is sky cover, as a clear night will increase chances for dense
fog. Currently looks like some high clouds could move in, so
holding off on the dense fog for now.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA late. Wind E 10-20 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-RASN. Wind E bcmg NW 10-20 kts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Record high temperatures for February 13th through 17th can be
found in the table below. Period of records began: MPX (1996),
MSP (1872), STC (1894), EAU (1893).
SAT SUN MON TUE
2/14 2/15 2/16 2/17
MPX 46 (2002) 45 (1999) 54 (2011) 62 (2017)
MSP 50 (1882) 63 (1921) 60 (1981) 63 (2017)
STC 52 (1921) 55 (1921) 53 (1981) 59 (2017)
EAU 49 (1934) 58 (1921) 58 (1931) 55 (1981)
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...NDC
CLIMATE...MPG
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion