NWS Forecast Discussion
392 FXUS63 KMPX 041100 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 600 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers with gusty winds expected as a cold front moves through this morning. - Cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s today and Wednesday followed by a climb back into the 80s through the weekend. - The weekend may feature precipitation chances, however considerable uncertainty exists at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 COOLER AND LESS HUMID NEXT FEW DAYS...The main weather feature of interest is a cold front advancing eastward across the area early this morning. The front has produced scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across western and central MN. Occasional wind gusts between 35-45mph have been observed with the frontal passage as winds shift out of the northwest. As expected, the broken line of showers and thunderstorms has weakened with eastward movement, which is forecast to continue this morning. We`ll keep scattered shower chances around through the first couple of hours after daybreak across southeastern MN and western WI. A chance of showers remains along the MN/IA border this afternoon as the front moves south. Cooler, more comfortable air arrives as a region of high pressure and drier weather builds into the Upper Midwest. Afternoon highs run below normal, in the 70s, the next couple of days. WARMING UP LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...Beginning Thursday highs will return to the lower 80s and continue warming through the weekend. However, the degree of warmth is somewhat uncertain due to the upper-level pattern. By Friday, the Upper Midwest will be positioned within a channel of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft, located between an upper-low over central Canada and an expansive ridge over the desert southwest. Guidance brings a cold front through the region Friday, which may produce scattered precipitation chances. As the weekend progresses, the northwesterly flow pattern will become more westerly/zonal around the ridge, which may support additional precipitation chances, though confidence in timing and coverage is low at this time. This is because there are differences across the ensemble membership with regards to the flattening of the ridge and northward expansion of mid-level warm air over the weekend. For now, we`ll roll with highs in the mid 80s Saturday & Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 554 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 The front and the showers and storms associated with it have almost cleared all our TAF sites. KEAU should see -TSRA within the hour and will likely see MVFR/near IFR conditions for the first few hours until the front clears. West northwest winds are expected through the period at around 10kts or less with the exception of a few gusts around 20kts for the next couple of hours. High clouds will likely hang around for southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin into this evening, with skies clearing overnight. KMSP...TSRA has ended, no additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind VRB to SW 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Strus/OEB AVIATION...Dye
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion