NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMPX 251759
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1159 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020

Skies this morning are pretty void of clouds. These systems to our
south and west are becoming more and more of a non-story for us,
if one could even think that was possible. The reason for this is
they remained independent of each other with the predecessor
shearing out and quickly advancing to the east. The other over the
northern Plains will dive almost due south today and then
translate eastward across the Ohio Valley Wednesday. There is a
third short wave across Canada that will also dive southeast
across the Upper Midwest tonight and Wednesday. That relatively
benign wave will bring us the most sensible impacts in the short
term.

Satellite trends don`t appear too optimistic about cloud cover
increasing anytime soon, but clouds should increase later today
and tonight as the northern short wave approaches. Boosted high
temperatures today several degrees to the 90th percentile given
1) much more sun expected, and 2) the trend for the last few days
being models significantly underestimating boundary layer
warming.

The short wave will bring a weak front through tonight shifting
winds slightly more northwest. It is during this time low clouds
have the best opportunity to develop. Forecast soundings reveal
there will remain a pronounced dry layer in the mid levels from
the DGZ up to 12 kft, however, so kept measurable precip chances
near zero despite light QPF being advertised on several models.
There is a remote possibility moisture will extend deep enough
into the DGZ to get a few flurries across southern MN into western
WI, so kept that mention going.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020

For the majority of the long term period, we remain situated
between a closed low circulating over Quebec, and weak mid/upper
ridging over the southwestern CONUS. This will make for an overall
benign weather pattern locally, with abundantly dry weather and
moderating temps as the Canadian low shifts to the northeast and
the western ridge builds toward the central CONUS.

By early next week we see a pattern transition, with shortwave
energy lifting northeast out of an amplifying trough over Baja.
This will be yet another split flow event where we have to figure
out how northern stream energy will marry with southern stream
energy, if at all. For now, best indications are that a rain/snow
mix will develop on Monday as the merger occurs. Confidence with
respect to timing and precip types is quite low, but high enough
to include 30 POPS.

Temperatures will be in the 20s for highs through Friday, then
lower 30s to lower 40s for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2020

Scattered high clouds will continue to thicken today. Confidence
has increased that there will be a period of MVFR levels later
this evening across southern MN and western WI. Cigs will raise
early Thursday AM with VFR conditions forecast for the rest of
Thursday. Otherwise, northerly winds around 10kts expected through
the period.

KMSP...There may be a few stray gusts this afternoon. Tonight`s
MVFR conditions are forecast to raise Thursday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts
Fri...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BPH/CEO

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org