NWS Forecast Discussion
145 FXUS63 KMPX 042319 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 519 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers tomorrow morning/afternoon with a band of amounts 0.75"+ possible. Snow may mix in, but main precip is expected to fall as rain. - Temperatures trend above normal to end the week. - Another chance for rain returns this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Morning precip observations show an area of 0.1 to 0.3 inches of rain fell across portions of south-central and east-central MN & western WI. There will be localized light rain and patchy fog over central WI this afternoon, otherwise dry conditions are expected until late tonight / early tomorrow morning when another surface low tracks NE from the central Plains. You might have to blink twice... the setup looks quite similar to our Halloween system! The main difference is that less cold air, and therefore less snow, will be able to fill in throughout the column. IF snow were to mix in, the best chance looks to be in portions of southwestern MN along the Buffalo Ridge, and later on in north-central MN as the system moves north into a colder airmass after sunset. There should be plenty of moisture/QPF along the northern band of precip, with a max of 0.75"+ possible for many locations. Where this band sets up is going to have a dramatic impact on who sees the highest totals again though, with a westward shift favoring areas in western/central MN and an eastward shift favoring locations in eastern MN & western WI. Even though we are less than 24 hours out, there is still a lot of spread across models, which highlights the impact and uncertainty that comes with the exact track of the surface low. Our current forecast highlights the area of best chance for seeing this precip max stretching from south- central MN up into northwestern WI. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Following our system tomorrow, the forecast will look to dry out through the end of the work week for most of the area. The best chance for precip during this timeframe would come overnight Wednesday in southern MN as energy ejects northeastward off of a spinning low over the Rocky Mountains. Troughing to the west should allow temperatures to trend above normal again across the Upper Midwest with most ensembles placing highs in the mid-upper 50s by Friday. Throw in the fact that winds are forecast to be around 5-10 mph with limited cloud cover, it`ll be a pleasant stretch of weather. THIS WEEKEND... Another strong northward surge of moisture is expected Saturday into Sunday ahead of a cutoff low that ejects into the central CONUS. The system track looks to take one similar to what we`ve seen the past few weeks, with the center of the low crossing over IA/WI and up through the Great Lakes. This would put southern MN & western WI in the northern precip shield and primarily see long duration, light precip. Forecast soundings show a stout warm layer, even on the backside of the low, so rain looks to be the main player this weekend. Any shift east or west of the low`s track would lead to less or more rain for the Upper Midwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 514 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 Mainly MVFR cigs/vis are expected overnight before rain approaches from the south by tomorrow morning. A return to IFR is expected through much of the day with winds becoming NNE until early afternoon as the surface low moves through and they return to a northwesterly direction. MVFR conditions will return by late in the period. KMSP...Low end IFR is possible during the late morning/early afternoon as the bulk of the rain moves through. Precip type is expected to remain all rain. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...Dye
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion