NWS Forecast Discussion
980 FXUS63 KMPX 291218 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 718 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and relatively cooler in the 50s and 60s through Friday, warming to the 70s and 80s Saturday onward. - Chance (40%) for rain across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Thursday, otherwise dry through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Broken low and mid-level clouds continue to sprawl across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin early this Tuesday morning. Not much in the way of precipitation is occurring from them, but a few reports of light rain or drizzle can be found in central MN and NW WI. Winds remain quiet breezy as they transition to the northwest, contributing to today`s cooler temperatures. Gusts near 30MPH across nearly all of the MPX coverage area should gradually subside by mid-morning. As the winds die down, clouds will continue to clear from west to east leaving a sunny Spring day in their wake. High pressure will keep a stagnant airmass in place through midweek, with a small disturbance arriving Thursday. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian all depict rain splitting south central Minnesota early on Thursday, as an upper level trough moves in. We may squeeze a few light showers from this, but given the antecedent conditions, PWATS will be low and less than a tenth inch QPF is expected at any given location. Dry conditions return Friday ahead of a nice warmup as ridging builds through the weekend along with southerly winds. This strong upper-level ridge will allow warm air to spread pretty much the entire CONUS. For the Upper Midwest, this means highs in the 70s and 80s as we begin May. Looking at potential active weather, any significant systems remain no where to be found. Longer range ensembles show quite a bit of variance into next week, with about 30 to 50% of ensemble members having measurable rain early next week. Given temporal proximity, this is fairly close to climatology such that there should not be too much stock placed within this for now. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 718 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 MVFR stratus will scatter out later this morning and winds will ease as high pressure builds in. Some drizzle is possible for the next couple hours in WI, particularly EAU. Winds will become light and then shift southeast tonight. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SSE 10-20 kts. THU...MVFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 15G25 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PV AVIATION...Borghoff
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion