NWS Forecast Discussion
763 FXUS63 KMPX 092341 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 641 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers & a few thunderstorms this evening across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. - Elevated fire weather conditions possible Friday afternoon. - Rain likely Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Strong southerly flow on the back side of departing high pressure has allowed temperatures to warm into the 70s across most of the area this afternoon. Winds have gusted up to 30 mph at times as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front approaching from the Dakotas, & it is ahead of this front where a band of scattered showers & thunderstorms is expected to develop this evening. Increasing high cloud cover spreading out of the Dakotas indicates that stronger forcing aloft is arriving as an upper level low dips southwards out of Manitoba & western Ontario. Satellite imagery still does not show anything the way of low convective cloud development, so we are still likely a few hours away from these showers developing, which will likely limit any precipitation to eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin this evening. Rainfall amounts will be light, only on the order of 0.1-0.25", & the best chances for a few rumbles of thunder are across western Wisconsin when the strongest forcing arrives later tonight. Winds become northwesterly overnight behind the front with drier air moving back into the region as another Canadian high pressure slides over the region. Winds are likely to gust around 20 mph at times behind the front, & deep mixing could allow for RH values to fall below 30% during the afternoon - especially across southern & south-central Minnesota. This could allow for a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions to develop, especially as fuels across the area have been priming from the antecedent dry conditions & recent frost/freeze. Other than the fire weather concerns, very pleasant conditions are expected through saturday with sunny skies & seasonable temperatures. Rain chances return for the latter half of the weekend, as the jest stream becomes more amplified over the central CONUS & develops a powerful fall system over the Canadian Prairies. Although we will remain well to the south of the strongest forcing, where accumulating snow is expected across southern canada, a swath of widespread rain is expected southwards along the cold front into the Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday. We won`t have enough moisture flow into the region to make this a "soaking" rain, but the heaviest rainfall amounts are expected closest to the forcing across western Minnesota, where ensemble guidances shows medium to high probabilities for at least 0.50" of rain (50-80%). Rain is still expected farther east, but ensemble guidance suggests lighter amounts more in the 0.10-0.25" range. The jest stream remains active across the northern tier of the CONUS through the week, so additional rainfall chances are possible mid to late next week. Guidance remains spread with the track & timing of any waves in the jetstream though, so hard to mention anything more than low-end chances for rain at this point. Ensemble guidance does show a high likelihood of rising heights later in the week, meaning we`ll likely see a continued trends towards warmer than normal temperatures for mid-October. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Line of showers and storms has formed across central MN, just east of STC and northwest of MSP. This line will progress east this evening, impacting MSP, RNH, and eventually EAU. Another batch of showers and potential thunderstorms should develop behind the initial line overnight across far eastern MN and WI. Clearing will be quick on the heels of the precip as winds turn northwest. KMSP...TS appears far enough northwest to just mention SHRA in the TAF for now, but will monitor additional development to the south. May need to amend for TS, but the probability is low enough to keep it out for now. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts. SUN...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind SE 15G25kts. MON...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...Borghoff
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion