NWS Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMPX 031204 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
704 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

The cold front at 4 AM has reached the far western Wisconsin
counties. Temperatures in the 50s continue ahead of it, but behind
it they range from the mid 30s across far eastern Minnesota to the
upper teens across western Minnesota. Despite the tight model
clustering with the front, the progression of it has been faster
than anticipated, by 3 to 5 hours in fact. Band of rain showers
are ongoing and ahead of the front, with more scattered activity
behind it. One batch of precipitation across south central MN is
lifting northeast and should reach the metro by 5 AM. This
precipitation is comprised entirely of freezing rain and rates
look impressive based on radar imagery. Colder air will continue
to filter in during the next several hours and this freezing rain
is encountering temperatures in the mid 20s. Efficient ice
accretion is expected this morning before the sun rises. Only a
few showers are noted farther west of this batch of freezing rain,
and most of the precip across the western half of Minnesota has
ended. Another round will develop later this morning and
afternoon over far eastern MN and western WI per a plethora of
hi-res models. Temperatures are not expected to rebound much above
30 in these areas through the day, so all of this precip will be
wintry. Ice accumulation of a tenth of an inch is being forecast in
these areas today. Therefore, expanded the Winter Weather Advisory
east to include the first two columns of counties in WI. The
advisory will likely be dropped early over the dry areas of
western MN, probably within a couple hours.

Drier air will arrive tonight with clearing skies this evening
and dew points dropping into the low or mid teens. Lows tonight
will be in the low teens northwest to low 20s east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

Temperatures will begin rebounding Saturday and WAA will continue
into early next week. Highs in the 40s Saturday will increase to
upper 50s Sunday, and 60s Monday/Tuesday, with some 70s possible
across southern MN Tuesday. We are going to be subject to multiple
disturbances early week and the development of nocturnal LLJs
which will provide some chance for showers. Thunderstorms will
become of more concern by Monday night and especially Tuesday as
deeper mid level lapse rates overspread the region. The strongest
in the series of waves appears to come through Tuesday with
portions of the area in the warm sector. Surface based instability
in excess of 1000 J/kg and an eroding cap by late afternoon with
plenty of deep layer shear could allow for a few stronger storms
before the cold front passes through Tuesday night.

The rest of the week is trending colder with gusty northwest flow
Wednesday and Thursday. The cooler than normal pattern is more
likely than not to linger into mid April.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

IFR/MVFR conditions through the day with improving cigs from west
to east this evening. Precip has ended across western MN, but
freezing rain, sleet, and snow will continue occasionally over
eastern MN and into the evening in western WI.

KMSP...Patchy freezing drizzle will continue until late morning,
then steadier freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible late
morning and early afternoon. Skies will clear 03-04Z.

Sat-Sun...VFR. Wind VRB 026.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ044-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ043-




NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org