NWS Forecast Discussion
325
FXUS63 KMPX 261508
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1008 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of rain today may be heavy at times, but the
overall flooding threat is less than it was on Wednesday.
- A conditional threat for severe thunderstorms, including
tornadoes, exists across far southern Minnesota this
afternoon.
- Another round of strong to severe storms possible Saturday
night into Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to track across
southern/eastern MN and western and WI throughout today. A
Flood Watch has been issued until 06z Friday to account for
today`s potential flood concerns. Some CAM members have hinted
at a northward shift of the highest QPF so additional counties
may need to be added to the watch later this afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Another round of rain and thunderstorms will overspread much of
the region today in response to an upper wave that is currently
producing a convective complex over Nebraska. Most indications
are that some pockets of heavy rain are possible with this
activity as it moves into the forecast area, possibly near or
over an inch, but overall amounts should not be as high as they
were on Wednesday. Given that waters from yesterday`s rains have
had all night to recede, most areas should be able to handle
today`s rainfall aside from some ponding in the typical high-
water locations. There could be some amounts closer to 2
inches, especially across southern Minnesota, but these areas
generally missed out on the heavier rain earlier. Will therefore
not reissue a flood watch for today.
Another focus for today will be the potential for severe
thunderstorms as a surface low over Nebraska moves to near the
Iowa/Minnesota border this afternoon. The big question is how
far this low tracks, and how far north an attendant warm front
can lift, as the primary severe threat will be focused near and
just south of this boundary. Most global guidance keeps the
front just south of the MN/IA border, which would keep the
general severe threat across Iowa and out of our forecast area.
However there are several higher-resolution models that bring
the front further north into southern Minnesota, with the RAP
bringing it as far north as Mankato/Faribault. How far north
this front makes it will be a critical factor in any severe
threat this afternoon, as rapid destabilization, very low LCL
heights and enhanced helicity near the front could result in a
few supercells capable of tornadoes and strong winds. Right now,
the further south solutions of the global models appear more
likely, thus the SPC slight risk focused across Iowa. It bears
watching though, since a slight northward deviation that other
models are suggesting could bring tornadic weather into
southern Minnesota this afternoon.
Friday will be a day to enjoy with dry and very pleasant
conditions. Highs will be in the 70s across the area with
dewpoints only in the lower 60s. Heat and humidity will then
rapidly return to the region on Saturday as dewpoints climb into
the lower 70s and temperatures rise well into the 80s to near
90s. This will lead to a very unstable airmass, and potentially
set the stage for one or more storm complexes to track across
the area late Saturday into Sunday. Severe storms are certainly
possible with this activity given the instability, but timing of
these storms will be a big factor including any stabilizing
effects that may occur from lingering rain and clouds from
previous storms. Therefore this weekend`s severe weather chances
are low confidence, but it certainly bears watching.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
IFR ceilings to prevail throughout this duration with rain
resuming late morning through late afternoon. Southern MN into
western WI has a chance at a few TSRA so have included as such
via PROB30 mention. Otherwise, steady showers will be the rule
with visibility into the MVFR range, potentially IFR should
heavier showers move over any given terminal. Winds will remain
under 10kts (outside of TSRA) from the NE to N.
KMSP...IFR conditions expected through midday, with decent
potential of ceilings rising back to bare MVFR level for the
afternoon push before dropping back down tonight into Friday
morning. Best timing of TSRA at this point looks to be in the
16z-22z timeframe. Confidence not entirely great, especially due
to multiple varying CAM solutions, but cannot rule out the TSRA
possibility so have included the PROB30 mention.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 8-12 kts.
SUN...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch through late tonight for Blue Earth-Faribault-
Freeborn-Martin-Steele-Waseca.
WI...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Dunleavy
DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...JPC
NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion