NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMPX 030940
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
340 AM CST Fri Dec 3 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Dec 3 2021

A quick dusting to a half inch of snow has fallen from last night
through early this morning, mainly along and north of I-94, with a
few hundredths of an inch of mainly rain to the south. Some
widespread fog is possible this morning with visibilities falling to
2 miles or less at times. Winds will increase and become
northwesterly by late this morning as a high approaches from the
west with temperatures about the same as or just a few degrees
cooler than yesterday. The surface high will settle in overnight
into Saturday, bringing clearing skies and CAA, allowing
temperatures to drop into the 20s area wide. Saturday`s highs will
be right around average in the low to mid 30s for the first weekend
of December after a relatively warm week. Quiet weather will be
short lived as our next system begins approaching from the west by
Saturday evening.

Another system will move across our area Saturday into Sunday, with
the majority of the accumulation in northern MN, outside of our CWA.
The divide for higher amounts again lies along I-94, with amounts
greater than an inch north of I-94 and amounts less than an inch
along and to the south. Some areas to the north may see
precipitation beginning as early as 6PM on Saturday, although the
majority of it will fall during the overnight hours and linger into
Sunday. Areas in west central WI can expect it to start a little
later and last a little longer (late Sunday).

The big news in the long term is the temperature forecast. Sunday`s
temps are looking to be the warmest for the week, with a cold
greeting on Monday that slices Sunday`s highs in half. Monday`s
forecast highs are in the mid 20s to the south and in west central WI
with highs in the low to mid teens in areas to the northwest. This
is before factoring in the anticipated strong winds. Strong and
occasionally gusty NW winds on Monday will lead to wind chills in the
single digits and some below zero. Monday night lows won`t feel much
different than the during the day despite the actual temp being
lower than the daytime actual temp because winds will drop off as
around sunset. Beyond Monday, uncertainty remains as considerable
spread between models is still apparent. However, we are still
expecting to see cooler temps, it is more a matter of how much
cooler.

Beyond the Sunday/Monday system and the cooler temps, the long term
is looking rather uneventful weather wise with a few small (less than
20%) chances for precip as a few short waves pass through in the
upper-levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Thu Dec 2 2021

An area of IFR vsbys in RA/SN continued to affect areas from KAXN-
KSTC and northward across central Mn. Cigs have ranged from IFR to
MVFR, to occasionally low end VFR. Areas to the south, vsbys will
averaged around 3-6SM in RA, with some mixture of SN along I-94.
KRNH-KEAU will begin to see IFR vsbys in SN between 6-8z, and will
continue for a few hrs before it tapers off. The main change in this
TAF period is to continue the IFR/MVFR cigs past 12z as once winds
become northwest, abundant low level moisture should increase across
central/southern Mn. Timing and how widespread these conditions
develop remains a concern. But, confidence has increased enough to
hold onto the MVFR cigs for most areas through Friday afternoon, or
at least low end VFR. Once winds shift to the northwest, expect a few
gusts in the low 20s.

KMSP...

Through 9z, RA/SN will continue but vsby should remain in the MVFR
range or VFR. A very short period of IFR is possible but not likely.
Past 09z, MVFR cigs will likely develop, but timing and how
widespread remains questionable. Once winds shift to the northwest,
confidence increases on these cigs developing.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts early bcmg SE 10-15 kts.
Sun...MVFR/IFR. -SN. Wind SE 10-15 kts, shifting WNW late and increasing.
Mon...MVFR cigs possible. Wind NW 15-20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye/Marten
AVIATION...JLT

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion

Script by Ken True @Saratoga-Weather.org